Oregon Vote-By-Mail Project

LCV Education Fund comissioned a report in 2002 from Michael W. Traugott & Michael J. Hanmer of the University of Michigan to analyze the impact of voting-by-mail (VBM) in Oregon on recent patterns of voter behavior.

This report focuses on turnout by extending previous analyses, examines daily ballot returns, and looks at roll off across the ballot, comparing VBM elections to polling place elections for different types of elections.  The analyses also examine state and county-level data since 1992, as well as more detailed analyses from a number of new datasets including precinct-level data for the 2000 election across the state of Oregon and individual ballots cast in Multnomah County.

The main findings of the study are:

1. Turnout remains high in Oregon, although the added contribution of VBM to already high levels remains low.

2. Historically, roll off across the Oregon ballot has been low, and neither the introduction of VBM nor the increased number of issues that appear on the Oregon ballot have had an impact on roll off.  While for partisan offices, the farther down the ballot one goes the lower turnout is, there is no relationship between roll off and ballot position for referenda.  Patterns of roll off observed at the state level are also present at the county level, and patterns in individual counties with relation to the state levels are consistent over time.

3. Oregon residents seem to be holding on to their ballots longer - casting them later - than they did in earlier statewide VBM elections.

View the full Report here (2.2 mb Word)